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GAME INDUSTRY TRENDS ANALYSIS 2024
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SA’s First White Maize Shipment Since 2017 Arrives At Port Of Durban
SA’s first white maize shipment since 2017 arrives at Port of Durban
By Octavia Avesca Spandiel | 17 January 2025 | 6:00 pm
The African Baza, a bulk carrier sailing under the Bahamas flag, last week offloaded 23 700t of white maize produced in the US at the Port of Durban.
This was South Africa’s first shipment of imported white maize since 2017 marking a notable development in the country’s grain market. The import comes as a result of the severe drought experienced about a year ago, which significantly impacted summer grain yields and leaving local supplies under pressure.
Speaking to Farmer’s Weekly, Heleen Viljoen, agricultural economist at Grain SA, said South Africa’s white maize production decreased by over 29% to six million tons, while yellow maize production ped by more than 15% to 6,7 million tons. The total maize harvest fell by 23%, amounting to 12,7 million tons, which, despite being slightly above the annual consumption of 11,7 million tons, left tight supplies in the market.
“White maize imports were anticipated for months, so it’s not a significant surprise to the market, and for now, will not have a substantial impact on local maize prices,” said Viljoen.
Tightening stocks and rising prices
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, told Farmer’s Weekly that the tighter stocks of white maize were a key concern for the agriculture sector. “South Africa’s white maize stocks are projected to close at just 277 884t by 30 April, a sharp decline from the 1,3 million tons recorded in the previous marketing year,” he said.
The white maize spot price traded at approximately R6 724/t on 9 January, reflecting a 55% increase from the previous year. Sihlobo also mentioned that higher white maize prices may
persist into the first quarter of 2025, with potential relief only in the second quarter, depending on the early deliveries for the 2025/26 marketing year starting in May.
Regional and global context
Sihlobo added that the impact of the drought extended beyond South Africa, with neighbouring countries such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi experiencing significant maize losses. In Zambia, maize production ped by half, while Zimbabwe lost nearly two-thirds of its crop.
“South Africa’s maize exports have also been affected. The country exported about 1,6 million tons of maize by early January 2024, with white maize comprising 65% of the total. However, this is a marked decline from the 3,4 million tons exported in the previous marketing year. Zimbabwe, a primary export destination, accounted for 57% of these exports,” he said.
Looking ahead
According to Sihlobo, despite the current tight supplies, South Africa’s ability to combine its white maize harvest with carry-over stocks has prevented a more severe shortage. The country’s total maize supplies for the 2024/25 marketing year amounted to 15,1 million tons, inclusive of 2,4 million tons carried over from the previous season.
South Africa remains one of the few white maize producers globally, alongside Mexico, which is also facing weather-related supply challenges. This unique positioning underscores the importance of maintaining strong production levels to support both domestic needs and regional food security.
While the current white maize imports may not significantly disrupt local markets, they signal the growing pressures from climate-related challenges and the need for robust strategies to safeguard South Africa’s agriculture sector.
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