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GAME INDUSTRY TRENDS ANALYSIS 2024
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Crop Estimate Shows Marginal Decline, Hope For Lower Inflation
Crop estimate shows marginal decline, hope for lower inflation
By Lindi Botha | 29 July 2024 | 1:00 pm
The latest data on the 2024 summer crop shows marginal decreases across summer crops like maize, soya beans and groundnuts. High hopes for a wetter 2025 season prevail, which should ease food prices if the rain materialises.
The sixth production forecast for summer crops has remained mostly unchanged.
Indications are positive that food price inflation off the back of the 2024 drought has come to an end, with good prospects for the 2025 season.
The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development’s (DALRRD) Crop Estimates Committee released its latest findings on the area planted to summer crops and yields achieved.
The size of the expected commercial maize crop has been set at 13,333 million tons, which is 0,53% or 71 250t less than the previous forecast of 13,405 million tons.
The three main maize producing areas, namely the Free State, Mpumalanga and North West, are expected to produce 79% of the 2024 crop.
Further insights include:
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The expected yield for maize is 5,06t/ha.
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The estimated maize crop is 18,85% or 3,097 million tons smaller than the 2023 crop.
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The production forecast of white maize remained unchanged at 6,348 million tons.
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The area estimate for white maize is 1,555 million ha and the expected yield is 4,08t/ha.
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Yellow maize production forecast is 6,986 million tons, which is 1,01% or 71 250t less than the previous forecast.
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The area estimate for yellow maize is 1,082 million ha and the yield is 6,46t/ha.
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Sunflower seed production remained unchanged at 649 250t.
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The area estimate for sunflower seed is 529 000ha, while the expected yield is 1,23t/ha.
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The production forecast for soya bean remained unchanged at 1,779 million tons.
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The estimated area planted to soya bean is 1,151 million ha, with an expected yield of 1,55t/ha.
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The expected groundnut crop is 53 755t, which is 1,26% or 685t less than the 54 440t of the previous forecast.
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The area planted to groundnuts is set at 41 200ha, with an expected yield of 1,30t/ha.
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The production forecast for sorghum remained unchanged at 95 830t.
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The area estimate for sorghum is 42 100ha and the expected yield is 2,28t/ha.
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Dry beans production forecast is 49 560t, which is 5,04% or 2 630t less than the 52 190t of the previous forecast.
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The area estimate of dry beans is 39 550ha, with an expected yield of 1,25t/ha.
The area planted to maize in the non-commercial agricultural sector is estimated at 347 000ha, a decrease of 3,24% from the previous forecast.
The expected is 575 000t, 13,41% less than last season. About 46% of the maize produced in the non-commercial sector is planted in the Eastern Cape, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 22%.
Winter cereal crops also showed declines, with the area planted to wheat reduced by 6,68%, reaching 502 000ha owing to reductions in all regions. Barley acreage has reduced by 5,16% to reach 102 050ha.
Canola production has however increased, with acreage at 146 200ha, which is 11,43% more than the previous season. The preliminary area estimate for oats for the 2024 season is 28 400ha and for sweet lupines 16 000ha.
It is important to note that the winter cereal crop preliminary area estimate is based on the results of a non-probability survey conducted by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis from the DALRRD and reflects the position as at the middle of July 2024.
The reduced production has taken its toll on consumers as prices for bread, cereal and meat products have remained high despite inflation for other products slowing down.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, noted that feed for animals would remain costly due to reduced volumes owning to the drought.
Given the scale of the decline in the white maize harvest and the expected strong demand from Southern Africa, he expected white maize prices to remain reasonably elevated for some time and thus sustain the increases in the prices of bread and cereal products in the food basket.
That said, Sihlobo does not expect the potential price increase to be substantial as the forecasts from the International Grains Council signal possible higher global wheat and rice production in the 2024/25 season.
With two months to go until the start of the 2024/25 summer crop season, farmers are eagerly anticipating an expected La Niña weather phenomenon this summer, which should bring above-average rainfall to the summer production region.
Sihlobo was hopeful that this would transition South Africa into a favourable period for agriculture, similar to what was experienced four seasons ago. He however noted that the South African Weather Service had maintained a cautious view and not yet declared the start of the La Niña event.
The seventh production forecast for summer field crops for 2024 will be released on 28 August 2024.
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